NASCAR at Austin expert predictions: Odds, long shots for Circuit of the Americas race (2024)

NASCAR heads to the famed Circuit of the Americas (COTA) track in Austin this week for the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix. COTA is currently the only track in the States used by both NASCAR and F1, and provides a road course with unique challenges for the drivers — and, we must add, thrills for the viewer.

The race in Austin is this Sunday, March 24, at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.

As we do every week, we’re turning to our NASCAR experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, to give us the scoop on COTA and the drivers who are most skilled on road courses like it. Plus, odds, favorites and long shots.

Here we go!

Let’s say this is someone’s first season watching NASCAR. So far, they’ve seen a photo finish, the ridiculous tire wear race, a giant wreck at the end of the Daytona 500 and I’m sure we’re missing more. Now there’s a road course race. Is this whirlwind of different tracks — and skill sets needed to win there — a feature or a bug?

Jeff: It’s definitely a feature and very intentional on NASCAR’s part to have a variety of different circuits. NASCAR prides itself on having perhaps the most diverse racing series in the world — short ovals, intermediate ovals, superspeedways, road courses, a street course and even a stadium race. You could have added a dirt race in there the last few years as well. It all plays into the parity NASCAR seeks, because having so many unique circuits prevents one team or driver from hitting on a setup at one type of track and dominating the season. The more different winners, the better for NASCAR.

Jordan: “Variety is the spice of life” is how the saying goes, right? Because it certainly applies to how NASCAR has gone about recrafting its schedule in recent years, intentionally cutting some of the repetitiveness to add greater variety. Maybe not all the ideas were home runs, but the fact that NASCAR is trying is deserving of praise after years and years of the same. It will be interesting to see what the decision-makers come up with next.

The last time we saw Shane van Gisbergen in the Cup Series, he was winning in Chicago. Does he have an advantage on any road course he shows up for, or was there something specific to the Chicago design and layout?

Jeff: Van Gisbergen actually made another start after his Chicago win, finishing a very respectable 10th at the Indianapolis road course last summer. Honestly, that kind of performance would have been much closer to what everyone anticipated from him in Chicago as well. The thing is, the Chicago conditions suited him better than everyone; not only was it on a street course, a type of circuit on which most of the field was racing for the first time, but it was also rainy/damp, which played to van Gisbergen’s experience level and strengths. A top-10 run would be very impressive again, and a top-five is realistic, but winning could be much tougher against a group of drivers that has much more track time at COTA than he does.

Jordan:Yes, with how the circ*mstances evolved in Chicago, SVG ended up holding a sizable advantage. Still, it cannot be stated enough how impressive his form was in his first-ever Cup race. A driver coming in and winning in their debut doesn’t happen. And while the playing field will be more level on Sunday — similar to Indy last year — don’t be at all surprised if SVG is again the driver to beat because, unlike Chicago, he will be getting additional reps by competing in Saturday’s Xfinity Series race. This should help SVG quickly learn COTA’s nuances.

Who will win at COTA?

Odds fromBetMGM.

Jeff: Tyler Reddick is the odds favorite, and for good reason. Three of his five career wins are on road courses. He won at COTA last year and is generally considered the top road racer in the series at the moment. Now, does that mean he’ll win? No, because Reddick went 1-for-6 on road/street courses last season. But if you’re looking for a pick, he seems like the one to go with. That said, an extended practice session on Saturday (because of a new aerodynamic package) could help identify other fast cars this weekend.

Jordan:Going with one of the usual suspects on road courses to win is probably the best bet simply because there are too many unknowns to confidently single out a clear favorite. Looking at the board, though, three drivers who are historically good on road courses jump out as having good values: Michael McDowell (+2200), Daniel Suarez (+2500) and Denny Hamlin (+2500).

Who is a long shot you like?

Jeff: It seems dangerous to sleep on the sports car racer (and ex-F1 driver) Kamui Kobayashi, who will drive for 23XI Racing (Reddick’s team) this weekend. Kobayashi (+6000) finished 33rd in his only other Cup start last summer at Indianapolis, but he was involved in a couple of incidents, and there were no cautions for him to catch up. Now he returns to a track where he’s already raced five times between the World Endurance Championship (WEC) and F1. Would it be tough to actually win? Of course, but as van Gisbergen showed at Chicago, it’s also far from impossible.

Jordan: Technically, he probably shouldn’t be regarded as a sleeper, considering he’s the reigning Cup Series champion, but with Ryan Blaney listed at +6600, that seems like a high enough number to justify “sleeper” status.

With Xfinity and the Truck Series racing at COTA, are there any drivers at the lower levels who happen to be exceptional on a road course and who we should be looking at?

Jeff: Well, van Gisbergen is full-time in the Xfinity Series this year — and he’s going to go toe-to-toe with Kaulig Racing teammate AJ Allmendinger in that race, which should be fun. Kyle Larson and Ty Gibbs will also be in the Xfinity race, making for a heck of a showdown. As for Trucks, it will be exciting to see the debut of 17-year-old road racing ace Connor Zilisch, who seems to have a bright future ahead of him; a win isn’t out of the question for his series debut.

Jordan:SVG vs. Allmendinger is going to make Saturday’s Xfinity race a must-watch. Adding in the fact that Larson and Gibbs could play the role of spoiler only adds to the intrigue. And Zilisch is definitely someone to watch. A lot of folks within the industry are very high on him and believe he has the makings of a future champion.

NOOB question of the week: I was talking to some friends who are F1 fans, and they had no idea NASCAR and F1 use the same track in Austin. That seems crazy/exciting/weird/all of the above. What’s unique about the strategies here between F1 and NASCAR?

Jeff: This is currently the only track used by both F1 and NASCAR, which makes it a fun comparison. But they’re vastly different races. F1 cars are shredding around the place and ripping through the corners to post lap times around the 1-minute and 39-second range. NASCAR Cup cars, which are bigger and heavier despite now having more of a sports car feel than the previous generation’s model, take roughly 2 minutes and 12 seconds to make a lap at COTA. Cup cars aren’t as nimble and have to slow down much more to make the corners than F1 cars do. As far as strategy, NASCAR has pre-planned “stage breaks” during the race, which tend to flip the field based on which option a team chooses. That makes it much less predictable than an F1 race at the same track.

Followup to that: You quote Denny Hamlin from the Bristol race saying “technique” was a huge deal there. In what ways is technique a factor in road races in general and Austin in particular?

Jeff: Road racing has more to do with the driver than on a typical oval because there are so many chances for a driver to mess up or make a mistake. COTA has 20 turns, after all, so that’s 16 more chances to miss a corner than a normal oval track. Some drivers are simply more skilled road racers than others, and those tracks are where they can stand out even without having the fastest car. Michael McDowell’s victory for Front Row Motorsports at Indianapolis last season is an example of that. Pick a good road racer and stay away from the drivers who don’t have a strong history of running well at this type of track.

(Photo of Tyler Reddick: Sean Gardner / Getty Images)